Following the general blackout that left the Iberian Peninsula without power on April 28, 2025, experts indicate that the risk of a similar situation cannot be entirely dismissed, despite its low probability. A researcher in energy transition from EHU states that "zero risk does not exist," and that in a complex system, various factors can chain together to create an incident.
A professor from the Department of Energy and Fuels at the School of Mining and Energy of the Polytechnic University of Madrid adds that it is "highly improbable" for a series of very specific events to coincide, but not "impossible." This possibility, though remote, shifts the focus to response capability. A year later, structural changes appear limited. According to the professor, few significant modifications have been introduced, with only operational adjustments and regulatory tweaks being made.
“"It is improbable for such an event to recur, but not impossible. If it happens, the outcome could be similar."
The electrical system now operates with a more reinforced scheme, with more power plants on standby to support the grid in case of failure. However, while this solution improves immediate response, it does not correct fundamental weaknesses. Experts warn that more is being paid to operate with larger safety margins, without having resolved the underlying problems.
The major deficit remains in infrastructure: transmission networks, distribution systems, and international interconnections. Without this foundation, any progress in energy generation loses some of its effectiveness. Added to this is an increasingly uncertain international context, with geopolitical tensions such as the conflict between the United States and Iran, which add pressure to a system dependent on gas. Nevertheless, the Spanish State starts with an advantage due to its regasification network and refineries.
To reduce energy dependence, accelerating renewable energies is crucial. Not even nuclear energy guarantees independence, as most fuel is imported. Renewables, in contrast, use indigenous resources and reduce exposure to geopolitical tensions. The growth of solar and wind energy has transformed the system, but it has also increased its technical demands, and grid management has not evolved at the same pace.
