If elections for the Basque Parliament were held today, EH Bildu and the PNV would be virtually tied in vote estimation in Álava. The PNV would secure 28.8% of the votes, while EH Bildu would reach 28.7%, representing a difference of just one tenth of a point in favor of the jeltzales. These figures emerge from a new edition of the Basque Sociometer, demonstrating how the party led by Arnaldo Otegi has gained ground compared to previous polls.

Last summer, for instance, the PNV's advantage was 1.5 points. It is worth recalling that in the 2024 regional elections, EH Bildu won in Álava for the first time. Regarding seat distribution, both parties would obtain eight seats in Álava, which would mean one more for the PNV compared to the current situation, thus reinforcing the tie.

As for the other parties, PSE-EE, PP, and VOX would maintain their current number of seats. Sumar, however, would lose its sole representative. In vote estimation, VOX would experience a notable increase, reaching 5.6%, one point higher than last July.

Across Euskadi as a whole, the PNV would also lose ground to EH Bildu, with a vote estimation of 35.3%, just over three points. Last summer, the difference was about five points. Nevertheless, the jeltzales maintain their leadership with 28 parliamentarians, compared to EH Bildu's 27. The PSE would regain representation with 12 seats, and the PP would retain its 7 representatives, as would VOX's single seat. Thus, the Basque Parliament would once again comprise five parties, following the disappearance of Sumar.