Geopolitical tensions and supply cuts are once again driving up industrial commodity prices in the third quarter of 2026. The reactivation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, along with new restrictions on transport through the Strait of Hormuz, have put global supply chains under renewed strain, increasing energy and transport costs. Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy and Chinese restrictions are also significant factors.
The Observatory anticipates a general price increase, particularly in the markets for base metals and ferrous metals. Supply constraints are a major focus of tension, adding to existing structural issues. Aluminum and copper continue to experience supply disruptions, while nickel is entering a recovery process.
Although demand has slightly weakened in the short term, trends linked to the technological and energy transformation continue to support the markets. Investments in artificial intelligence, data centers, electricity grids, electric vehicles, and the energy transition will increase the demand for copper, aluminum, and nickel in the long term.
The reactivation of the conflict between the US and Iran has prevented the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating supply disruptions and increasing energy prices, transport costs, and risks to global supply chains.
US trade policy maintains uncertainty, especially in the copper market. The possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper is encouraging the import and accumulation of the metal in the US, reducing availability in other markets.
The suspension of Chinese exports of sulfuric acid, linked to sulfur shortages caused by the Middle East conflict, affects international metal supply chains, particularly in certain copper and nickel production processes. This highlights the growing importance of national industrial policies.
The risk of a strong El Niño phenomenon adds uncertainty, increasing the probability of extreme weather events and logistical disruptions, posing risks to rubber production and mining activities.
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