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Electoral Poll: PNV, EH Bildu, and Vox Grow in Álava; PSE, PP, and Podemos Decline

The EITB Focus poll shows a clear tie between PNV and EH Bildu, with both far ahead of other parties.

Generic image of electoral growth and decline.
IA

Generic image of electoral growth and decline.

The EITB Focus poll indicates a technical tie between the PNV and EH Bildu a year before the Álava regional elections, with both parties together accounting for 55% of the votes.

The PNV and EH Bildu are engaged in a close contest to be the most voted list in the upcoming regional elections in Álava, according to the EITB Focus poll. One year before the elections, both parties together account for 55% of the votes, with less than a point separating them. The poll suggests the PNV would win by 7 tenths, although this does not guarantee them the majority of seats.
The regional elections will distribute 51 seats: 39 will be elected by residents of Vitoria-Gasteiz, 5 by those in Ayala, and 6 by the remaining districts. The EITB Focus poll does not provide seat distribution but clearly reflects the upward trend for the PNV and EH Bildu, as well as for Vox. Conversely, the PSE, PP, and Elkarrekin Podemos are declining. Furthermore, Elkarrekin Podemos's fall will depend on whether they ultimately form a coalition with Sumar.
According to this poll, the PSE and PP would continue to lose support in Álava, each dropping 2.4 points. The gap with the nationalist and independentist parties is widening. Regarding Vox, the far-right party would reach nearly 5% support in Álava, although its main strength lies in Vitoria-Gasteiz. It is important to remember that Vox needs 5% of the support to enter the Vitoria-Gasteiz City Council, but in the General Assemblies, 3% is sufficient, where they already have procurator Jonathan Romero.
In the case of the PNV and EH Bildu, a shift in trend is observed among the PNV supporters. Although they do not yet have an official candidate, the PNV list would recover some of the ground lost in previous elections. Their challenge is that the sovereignist EH Bildu would grow almost equally. Thus, the battle to determine which list will be the most voted will continue until the end.
These figures, in any case, are contingent on the absence of a 'super election Sunday,' something that currently seems unlikely but cannot be ruled out with Pedro Sánchez.
Post-election agreements: Regardless, the future Deputy General of Álava will depend on post-election agreements. Currently, a PNV-PSE pact is the most probable outcome, as has been the case since 2015. Although there is still a year left until the elections, anything can happen.

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