The 2027 municipal and regional elections are fast approaching. On May 23rd, Álava will elect its 51 assembly members, and the territory's 53 municipalities will choose their councilors. While many will learn their mayor's identity that day, cities like Vitoria-Gasteiz will await post-election pacts.

Numerous uncertainties remain, with the most significant originating from Moncloa. Pedro Sánchez's decisions regarding the general elections will undoubtedly influence the municipal election outcomes. Although a "super Sunday" coinciding general, regional, and municipal elections seems unlikely today, with Pedro Sánchez, anything is possible. Such a convergence would benefit the PSE in Vitoria and Álava, though perhaps less so for their party colleagues in other regions.

The "super Sunday" electoral scenario would favor Maider Etxebarria but not necessarily many other socialist mayors across Spain. The perception of Sánchez differs significantly between the Basque Country and the rest of Spain, where socialist mayors often prefer their local management to be judged independently. The Basque Country, Navarre, and Catalonia have become "islands" where the PSOE achieves much better results, enabling them to retain power in La Moncloa in 2023.

It appears likely that a "super Sunday" would frame the elections within a national context, which would, a priori, benefit the PSE while particularly weakening EH Bildu and PNV. This would also impact votes for Vox and PP, though the extent of this influence in Álava, given the strength of "Sanchismo", remains to be seen.

Sánchez confirmed this Wednesday that "the elections will be in 2027" and indicated his intention to run, though he did not specify the month. Theoretically, they should occur in August if the legislature is completed, but this seems improbable. The question is whether he will advance them to winter or hold them concurrently.

Regarding the municipal elections in Vitoria-Gasteiz, currently, only Maider Etxebarria and Iñaki García Calvo have been officially nominated by their respective parties. The PNV and EH Bildu are not rushing, and their candidates will not be known until autumn.

It remains to be seen if Elkarrekin will achieve unity, a "rain of acronyms," or what will happen for them to surpass the 5% threshold. Vox, which polls suggest will enter the City Council, currently has Jonathan Romero as its visible head, his sole representative in Álava as a regional assembly member.

In Álava, the uncertainties are even greater. Ramiro González has not yet declared his candidacy, while political speculation suggests a potential move to the City Council as the leader of the Vitoria-based PNV. Cristina González will definitively leave regional politics; the question is whether counselor Javier Hurtado will assume her position as lead candidate or if another profile will be chosen.

Within the PP, Iñaki Oyarzabal is the perennial candidate and orator. He has never held government office, and his political career in the PP has been marked by executive roles, campaign management, and opposition from the Basque Parliament and the Provincial Assemblies. He currently serves as the president of the PP in Álava.

Eva López de Arroiabe has also established herself this term as the opposition to Ramiro González. Her assertiveness has increased in recent weeks, following the split between the PSE and PNV over their agreement with EH Bildu regarding the new Law of Municipalities of Álava. While Vitero has become a reference for EH Bildu in Vitoria, López de Arroiabe has focused her political activity in rural areas and from the Provincial Assemblies.

In Elkarrekin, the uncertainty again lies in how they will converge, while Vox, as mentioned, maintains prominence through Romero.