Euskadi is heading towards a profound demographic transformation in the coming years. According to the projection published by the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Basque Country will add inhabitants to reach 2,298,897 residents by 2041, which is 49,397 more than in 2026. However, the most relevant data is not the total number, but its origin: almost a quarter will be foreign-born.
Specifically, 24.3% of residents in Euskadi in 2041 will come from other countries, compared to the current 15.3%. In absolute terms, the foreign-born population will increase from 342,540 people in 2026 to 559,830 in fifteen years.
In parallel, the population born in the Basque Country or the Spanish State will significantly decrease in Euskadi, falling from 1,906,959 people currently (84.7% of the total) to 1,739,067 in 2041. This translates to a loss of 167,892 residents. Furthermore, the average age of the population will rise from the current 47 years to 49.
The INE warns that its projections are not definitive predictions, but rather "show the evolution the population would follow if current demographic trends were maintained." This is why it always presents its data conditionally.
The change will not be uniform across the three provinces. Araba will experience the most intense transformation, with the proportion of the foreign-born population increasing from the current 17.6% to 27.1% in 2041. In Bizkaia, it will rise from 14.7% to 23.9%, while in Gipuzkoa it will grow from 14.9% to 23.6%.
Across the entire State, the pattern is repeated. The native-born population would drop from the current 79.8% to 59.6% in the next five decades. At the same time, total growth will remain positive: by 2041, the State will add more than 4.2 million inhabitants, an increase of 8.6%, driven exclusively by international migration. The INE points out that without this migratory flow, the combination of declining birth rates and an increasing number of deaths would lead to a negative natural balance for decades.
In Euskadi's case, the growth will be more moderate than in other autonomous communities, but it will follow the same structural trend: fewer births, increased aging, and growing dependence on migratory flows to sustain the population.
